By Jeffrey A. Rendall
Conjecture on the ‘28 GOP presidential race continues – will Marco Rubio give it a go?
Political observers have had their hands full recently, trying to pin down President Donald J. Trump’s latest moves as well as figure out how Democrats plan to remain viable now that the Supreme Court struck down race as sufficient justification to gerrymander congressional district lines to fashion “majority-minority” set-aside House seats.
The court ruling was two weeks ago, a virtual lifetime in politics. Yet the justices’ decision still reverberates.
But it’s never too soon to look ahead to the next party nomination cycle. Democrats busy themselves desperately trying to spawn an alternative to their current very-preliminary slate of uninspiring frontrunners – namely, cackling Kamala Harris, the irredeemable “Governor Hair gel” Gavin Newsom and a bevy of rumored second-tier wannabes (Ro Khanna?) – but the impending Republican battle to succeed Trump is becoming less and less settled as well.
Or is it? One name being bandied about is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio has excelled in his high-profile role in the Trump support cast, and now what formerly looked to be practically a forgone conclusion (that JD Vance was pre-destined to be the next-in-line) is now open for pundits and political pros to prognosticate.
It’s fun to play political let’s pretend, isn’t it?
In an opinion piece titled, “Marco Rubio’s 2028 momentum is getting impossible to ignore”, the always sensible Joe Concha wrote at the Washington Examiner last week:
“In the end, both men have a solid chance to win if the Iran War is resolved, gas prices fall, inflation falls, the border stays secure, the Save America Act is passed, and perhaps most importantly, Democrats continue to drive the party so far to the Hasan Piker/Graham Platner/AOC/Bernie socialist wing of the party that it alienates the kind of moderate swing voters they’ll need to win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
“There are still more than 600 days until the first votes are cast in the Iowa Caucuses for the GOP. As we know in the Trump era, things can change on a dime. These aren’t the No-Drama-Obama years.
“The Republican Party has a good problem on its hands: two vastly qualified, intelligent alpha men with high name recognition and the ability to battle their opponents and a hostile media could be one of its nominees in 2028. Or they could form one of the strongest 1-2 punches not seen since Mantle and Maris.”
Of course, Concha’s analysis doesn’t mention that both JD Vance and Marco Rubio have the unwavering backing of Donald J. Trump at current. As long as both men stay in their lanes – and in their heads – to carry out the top guy’s wishes, they should remain in Trump’s good graces.
Trump and Rubio famously clashed a decade ago when both vied for the Republican presidential nomination to go up against Crooked Hillary Clinton and “The One”, Barack Obama’s legacy. It’s only been ten years but it might’ve seemed like twenty for as much as the American political world has transformed in the time since.
Initially, Rubio didn’t accept being insulted and vanquished by Trump, originally vowing not to run for reelection to his Florida senate seat, then he changed his mind and, over the course of time, became one of Trump’s biggest allies on Capitol Hill. Forgotten were Trump’s “Little Marco” taunts from the ’16 campaign, and the Rubio-spawned controversy over the size of Trump’s hands.
Funny how we remember this stuff in the world of politics. How else could we keep going?
But Rubio’s standing has been revamped in MAGA-world to the extent that many ardent Trump-supporters are now open to pondering Marco as Trump’s successor. Concha details the arguments for Marco, including the very real notion that Vice President JD Vance may not run in 2028, preferring, instead, to stick to the sidelines for a time and be present for the years his young children (including one yet to be born) grow into teens and adults.
I guess it depends on Vance’s level of ambition, though it certainly appears as though the veep is planning to team with the President on fulfilling several more administration agenda items before the next campaign cycle truly begins in earnest. It’s hard to believe that the 2028 field will be well on its way to being filled out in about a year. Strange.
Nevertheless, it’s only natural to consider the future variables now. As Fleetwood Mac once crooned (in the song, “Don’t Stop”): “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow… Don’t stop, it’ll soon be here…It’ll be better than before… Yesterday’s gone, yesterday’s gone.”
To begin with, there are several strikes against a Marco Rubio Republican presidential candidacy in 2028, and one of the most difficult to overcome is the fact American voters don’t regard foreign policy chops as a solid basis for serving as president.
I won’t maintain Americans are shallow or uninformed or isolationist or inward focused, but a candidate’s ability to display expertise in economic matters is generally seen as preeminent to the vast majority of folks.
How else would Mitt Romney have won the 2012 nomination, or Trump come out on top in 2016?
The fact Rubio is Donald Trump’s Secretary of State and has been intricately linked to a host of Trumpian foreign policies could provide some basis for Rubio to brag about on the primary debate stage, but most likely, the electorate would still center their preferences on the candidates’ domestic agenda.
Recall how Hillary Clinton struggled to set herself apart from her fellow Democrat aspirants in 2016? There was little doubt Crooked Hill’s foreign policy resume was leaps and bounds greater than her opponents’, but Clinton couldn’t add to her already impressive Democrat establishment frontrunner lead. Not only that, senile old coot Bernie Sanders captured the base’s imagination by touting his bucket load of domestic redistributionist schemes.
There’s more to it than that, but generally speaking, Americans prioritize subjects such as energy policy and border enforcement and whether the person is a demonstrated believer in tax cuts and smaller government rather than globalist views. This is particularly true in the Republican party. Donald Trump took the GOP by storm in 2015 and 2016 by railing against government’s handling of immigration and crime, and then maintained his place in conservatives’ hearts by reintroducing the immigration conundrum in 2024.
These home-focused matters only have a tangential connection to foreign policy. So while Rubio can speak with knowledge on U.S./Israel policy or add value to the “U.S. and NATO” discussion – and U.S./China relations, too, his honed international negotiations’ talents won’t be a deal sealer by any means.
Rubio’s Trump administration service will be a feather in his proverbial cap, but it’s probably more likely that President Trump’s foreign policy will act as a negative rather than separate Rubio from the JD Vance – or other, yet-to-be-determined contenders — for those who prefer more of an America First orientation.
Next, Rubio, if he does indeed run for the top job in two years, must combat the impression that he’s the “establishment candidate” of the field. The entrance of someone like Nikki Haley would certainly assist with Rubio’s mission to distance himself from the GOP bluebloods, but Marco has never completely shaken the Washington status-quo repute that cropped up in 2016.
Marco must surmise his infamous association with “comprehensive immigration reform” and the “Gang of Eight” would have faded by now. Uh-uh. Voters don’t have long memories for much of anything, but a proven tie to a deeply unpopular movement like those just mentioned will likely never go away. At least completely.
Immigration, for Republicans, is an issue where the doghouse door only truly swings one way. Once you’re in the doggie den, there’s no emerging from it.
Lastly, Rubio himself has said, on a few occasions (I think), that if Vance opts to run in ’28 that he won’t challenge the current veep. This type of statement or assurance doesn’t mean it’s set in stone in the ever-changing universe of politics, but if JD did announce and then Marco switched his stance, the Floridian would already have a lot to answer for to the Republican primary voters.
Kind of like Trump’s history with women was the topic he was probed about in the very first media forum, Rubio’s broken promise would likely be the initial subject he’d be plagued by.
No one ever said politics was fair, and we recognize how establishment media figures will make a big deal over any potential negative for all of the major post-Trump GOP candidates. Will us voters get better answers because of it? Time will tell. Be ready for the Republican catfight we know is in the works.
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .