By Jeffrey A. Rendall
With politics news at a summer lull, speculation on the 2028 GOP presidential field persists
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham’s sudden death last week made me harken back to a decade ago during the lead-up to the fateful – for the country and the Republican party – 2016 campaign and election.
You recall, the one where “outsider” never-been-in-any-public-office Donald J. Trump did the unthinkable by then prevailing in the Electoral College and being elected President, the first non-anything to ascend to the White House since… well, George Washington? (Note: The Father of our Country had been elected previously, just not a federal office under the Constitution.)
I thought about the fractious 2016 campaign (which actually hit high intensity in 2015) and how more than a Baker’s dozen Republicans thought they possessed the stuff to make a try for the presidency. Senator Graham was one of them, 16 in all. Remember how Carly Fiorina was the only hopeful to emerge from the “Happy Hour” undercard debates to temporarily make the leap to the main competitor stage?
At any rate, things have evolved (or devolved, depending on your point-of-view) since 2016 and there aren’t nearly as many Republicans contemplating a campaign to succeed Trump after he leaves office in early 2029.
Everyone figures the two “obvious” would-be Trump heirs will be there. What about the rest? In an article titled, “The 6 Republicans most likely to win the 2028 presidential nomination”, Amie Parnes reported at The Hill last week:
“The Republican primary in 2028 may not be as large and unwieldy as the Democratic field, but political observers on both sides of the aisle say that doesn’t mean it won’t be as compelling.
“For months, speculation has been building over who will inherit the Republican mantle after President Trump leaves office. The conversation has only intensified as Trump has quietly asked allies at dinners and closed-door meetings whom they prefer.
“While it’s still early, here are our rankings for the Republican nomination.”
Without further delay, the six Republicans are:
JD Vance
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Ron DeSantis
Donald Trump Jr.
and…
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
I didn’t think I’d need to do any head-scratching with a list of possible 2028 Republicans, but the last name on the roster caused me to practically rub a hole in my scalp.
No matter. We could include just about any Republican or articulate conservative on a “thinking about it” list and make a credible argument on his or her behalf. Though not exactly wide open, the 2028 GOP field is far from set. Part of the reason for this is no possible candidate has come forward and said, “Yeah, I’m definitely in.” This goes for Vance and 
Rubio as well as the others, the leading names deferring an answer just as strenuously as everyone else.
Why the hesitation?
While there’s always a tendency to assume that today’s political status quo will persist indefinitely, there’s just no way to figure tomorrow will be the same as today or next week will be anything like yesterday. The primary reason for the ambiguity is there’s no way to forecast what’s going on in Donald Trump’s head and so much depends on what the current president does on any given day.
That being said, the ongoing Iran War and its connection to gas prices will most assuredly factor into Vance’s and Rubio’s fortunes, since both are indelibly connected to the conflict’s outcome. It’s been suggested that Vance’s value as a frontrunner elevates and dips with his reputation as a war crisis negotiator, but I don’t think there’s a person in America who would pin a conferred result – or lack thereof – to the vice president either way.
If anything, Vance’s role in rooting out fraud will matter more to those searching for a MAGA follow-up act to the “big guy” himself. Though JD’s been Trump’s number two for over two years now, the Ohioan with the humble background and gift for calling it as he sees it still has a “fresh” aura to him. Trust is earned through long exposure to the rat race of politics or public life, and JD Vance just hasn’t been around long enough to make that judgment yet.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has definitely been in the spotlight for a sufficient length to allow people to get to know him, but he’s not yet firmly tied to the topsy-turvy fate of Donald Trump’s presidency. Rubio has done a masterful job of inching closer to Trump yet staying far enough removed to be viewed as having his own thoughts and talents.
This is much truer than would be for JD Vance.
MAGA should have staying power within the Republican party, and I don’t see a scenario where the old GOP establishment reemerges to retake control of the leadership or even the party machinery. Too much has happened since Donald Trump burst onto the scene, and, as I noted last week after Graham’s passing, the “old” establishment is but a whisper compared to where it used to be.
Who’d lead the establishment’s charge to work its way back from the proverbial dog house? Mitt Romney? Paul Ryan? Liz Cheney?
I just don’t see it happening. The establishment still has a detectable presence in the GOP senate leadership, but I’d like to see anyone from the old guard attempt to reassert themselves while Trump is still in charge and get away with it. Mitch McConnell’s on his way out, as is Thom Tillis (through retirement), John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy (through being kicked out of power through the primary process).
One name that wasn’t on Parnes’ list of possible/likely 2028 contenders was Nikki Haley. The 2024 Republican de facto presidential runner-up couldn’t overcome her serious legacy public relations obstacles to be considered a next-in-line to Donald Trump. Florida’s Ron DeSantis added emphasis to his effort to move Haley to the side in 2024 as well. The party establishment is in the doldrums, and will probably stay there.
The others – are they also rans before the race even starts?
Seeing Ted Cruz being included in the 2028 conversation caught my attention. As an enthusiastic Cruz backer before Trump secured the 2016 nomination, I remember how effective the Texas senator was in pleading the limited government/social conservative cause prior to his eventual Trump-forced capitulation.
The world is different than ten years ago, but there’s room for the fiscal responsibility/cut government spending message as Trump’s second term winds down. The government’s debt situation only gets worse. Senator Rand Paul has been like a voice crying in the wilderness on the issue. I could see where Cruz, who is as “young” as Marco Rubio, could fit in there somewhere.
Governor Ron DeSantis – DeSantis kind of dawdled his way to irrelevance in the 2024 race, waiting too long to finally announce that he would compete with Trump for the GOP nomination. By the time DeSantis made it official in mid-2023, he was all-but old news. Trump had coined a nickname for the governor – “DeSanctimonious” – and the ideological and practical running lanes had been filled.
Despite his stellar record in Florida, DeSantis couldn’t catch fire. To his credit, the Florida governor left the primary race early enough to allow Trump to welcome him back to the fold. But would the same charisma limitations plague DeSantis if he were to make another go of it in 2028?
Donald Trump Jr. – I doubt the Trump family is ready for another presidential candidacy on the heels of Trump Sr.’s three-plus terms in the American public eye. Trump Jr. is an interesting character and seems to possess many of his father’s persuasive talents, but would the younger Trump really want to try and shove friend JD Vance to the side to run for consecutive Trump terms?
I don’t see it. I’ve been wrong before, but here’s betting Don Jr. won’t be in the 2028 field. Unless, somehow, his dad wanted him to be there and agreed to lend his considerable persona to the campaigning. Would the throngs of MAGA fans turn out to see the son like they did for his dad?
Sarah Huckabee Sanders – Perhaps Parnes felt she needed a woman Republican to add balance to the list of possible GOPers thinking about running for president, so she reached for Mike Huckabee’s daughter to round out the genders.
Unlike the others mentioned, Huckabee Sanders doesn’t have a national following. She’s well liked in her native Arkansas – and she was Trump’s Press Secretary for much of his first term — and the Huckabee name carries some significance, but Sarah would have to want it bad to challenge the more established candidates above her in the pecking order.
Nikki Haley tried the “Hey, I’m a woman!” candidacy in 2024. The distinction only goes so far.
Pundits will continue searching for attention-seizing topics as we head into the crucial fall 2026 federal midterm campaign. Conservatives will keep an eye on the potential field – and President Trump will receive more than his share of inquiries – but time and events will help solve the mystery. Stay tuned.
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .