By Jeffrey A. Rendall
Party with a sitting president usually loses in a midterm. Time for Republicans to squirm?
Momentum switches in politics can happen at any time, and the nice – or not so nice depending on your party identity – thing about them is the fact they show up without warning and improve or dampen chances of victory instantaneously.
Politics is far from a simple game of chance, but sometimes it just feels like one.
2026 doubters among conservatives have been surly for over two months now, the pessimists still perturbed at the Republican Party’s pathetic showing in last fall’s elections. Adding to the malaise, Democrat Abigail Spanberger replaced Glenn Youngkin here in Virginia last weekend. The changeover was enough to remind us of how big the stakes are ahead in November.
Understandably, then, glass half-empty folks are discounting the GOP’s chances of maintaining their current strength this far in advance. But is it time to lose our collective nerve?
Not so fast. In an opinion piece titled, “Republicans should not panic about midterm elections just yet”, the always astute Michael McKenna wrote at The Washington Times recently:
“It’s unclear whether the Democrats will be able to restrain their worst impulses and maintain a moderate pose and tenor all the way through to November. The moderate wing of the Democratic Party, such that it is, would like to stay focused on affordability and the perceived overreach of Mr. Trump.
“That, of course, has two problems. First, the more numerous and aggressive Democrats would like to talk about Immigration and Customs Enforcement and immigration and how no one is ‘illegal.’ Some have failed to get the message on the culture wars and want to relitigate whether men get pregnant. Neither blanket approval for illegal immigration nor a willingness to perpetuate the worst of the culture wars is likely to be a winning strategy.
“The second problem is that on their main issue, affordability, Democrats have yet to articulate anything resembling a solution. That’s not a problem at the moment, but it will become one when the campaign debate season starts in the late summer.”
For sure. Democrat consultants are huddling in conference rooms around the country crowing about “affordability” and bragging that they’ve touched a nerve with the ICE protests in various places, but the liberal mouthpieces have misread, once again, the mood of average people who aren’t susceptible to the latest sell-job and really take a gander at what’s happening.
I know average people. I like average people. Kurt Schlichter calls them “normals”. I agree.
That being said, McKenna’s piece came out before this blurb from Rasmussen Reports, which indicated the Democrat lead has doubled to six points over the GOP on the generic ballot since November. Uh-oh. Flashing lights? Hearing sirens, anyone?
Moving forward, the Supreme Court recently ensured that the transgender controversy will be around for November’s federal midterm elections, and Democrats are on the extreme side. As usual, I might add. Can Democrats concoct an answer to the simple question, “Can a man get pregnant?” Watch Dem candidates squirm when the topic comes up after Labor Day. The kneejerk rejoinders of Democrats can’t be suppressed for long. This is common sense.
Then there’s the offshoot of another Democrat behavioral flaw – their inability to keep independent swing voters ticked off indefinitely. Yelling and screaming and gesticulating and threatening behavior doesn’t sway voters in the middle to your point-of-view. It drives them away.
Backlash and the Minnesota freakout will show up in competitive states
Admittedly I have no polling data to buttress my forthcoming assertions, and my theory is supported by little more than a blanket “It’s a hunch” justification, but here’s thinking the left’s hysteric overreaction to the Trump administration’s attempt to strictly enforce immigration law will end up benefitting… Republicans.
Why? Because the customarily staid “silent majority”-type electorate that tips balances in close elections only activates under semi-extreme circumstances to boost conservative candidates. The Trump base, much of it at least, is too busy working hard and doing the “stuff” of everyday living to civically engage at all times. These people aren’t irresponsible, they’re just inert until something, anything, rouses them to participate in large numbers.
The same inertia phenomenon can be attributed to the typical leftist voter, who’s too preoccupied with personal selfishness and inward focus to bother voting except when Democrats decipher how to lie to them sufficiently to stir participation. The 2025 elections are a prime demonstration of how Democrats managed to get their minions to the polls… and Republicans didn’t.
We don’t have to like it, but this is human nature and normal party balloting behavior. Early factors point towards the GOPers doing a much better job of getting their voters ready to send Democrats a message later this year, and it’s because decent people are sick to death of seeing miscreant scumbags thumbing their noses – and flipping their middle fingers – at law enforcement officers who are just trying to do their jobs.
The ICE action isn’t, as leftists frequently assert, akin to the Arkansas National Guard barring the schoolhouse doors to black children in the 1950’s, either. This is men and women in uniform attempting to enforce laws that Congress passed while ridding the country of dangerous criminals in the process. This is a good thing, folks. People reading their email or viewing internet feeds understand the difference.
This being said, Trump could alter his public relations approach to shore up swing voters. More on this next week.
The left always goes too far, because ideologically driven reactionaries don’t detect the line that’s too easily crossed in pursuit of their own emotional impulses. Just check Facebook these days and closely monitor the posts of your left-leaning, Trump-hating “friends” (if you still keep any around). Jaws lie agape at some of the verbal gaga they’re putting on social media. Are they trying to convince people or just satisfying themselves at their willingness to “Resist!”?
Whatever the reason, it all adds up. Decent Americans aren’t going to endure the left’s absurd protests kindly. This isn’t a 2020 redux. The limit’s been discovered. Enough is enough.
If it’s the economy, stupid, “Affordability” won’t carry the same punch in 2026
As we noted earlier, Democrats ran the table a few months ago in the small collection of Elections that were held in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia.
As has been repeated ad nauseum, Democrats did so by attacking Republicans on the recently ended government shutdown (that Democrats fostered, no less), dragging President Donald Trump through the mud on every occasion and pounding the “affordability” myth to make it appear as though Republicans weren’t engaged in helping America’s economy to flourish.
Some things just happen. It’s not random, but voter attitudes are fragile, especially when the discredited establishment media gleefully assists Democrats in spreading their half-truths and innuendo.
2026 promises to be better, for several reasons. First, some very visible everyday prices have begun trickling downward, most notably at the gas pump. My family just visited the west coast (California) and vacationed in Hawaii, both locales featuring petrol prices well north of four bucks a gallon.
Having arrived back in Virginia, we noticed offering prices of around $2.60 a gallon. The Old Dominion doesn’t feature the long-range scenic views – or the warmth – of Hawaii, but the cost of living is more manageable in these parts. Here’s thinking it will take a little while for other consumer levies to level out and then drop, but the changes should be noticeable by fall. Unless something extraordinary and unanticipated happens. You never know with Trump in the White House. But this observation includes unanticipated good things, too.
More forecastable is the probable boost to the economy from the Republicans’ passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year in addition to positive impact from Trump’s other economic chess plays, such as trillions from foreign investments and yes, tariffs, if the Trump brains can maneuver in the ways they intend to.
Tax return checks should be bigger in the coming months as well. People will notice, particularly those at the lower income strata who won’t encounter taxes extracted from their tips and overtime pay and social security checks.
Steering the public narrative will be much testier, but a full-party GOP strategy will be in full force, not a partial effort as was the case a few months ago (in a few states).
Lastly, Democrats can be counted on to act as… Democrats do. The liberal party moves further and further left, and Zohran Mamdani will have had several seasons to lay waste to order in New York City. Things won’t be looking quite as rosy in the tri-state area as they were portrayed to be last fall.
Both sides will spin and spin and spin some more, which leaves it up to the American people to assess what’s happening and base their “right track/wrong track” judgments on the facts. The success or failure of Trump’s second term hinges on Republicans keeping control of Congress, or at least holding a tie in the Senate. Will it happen? Time will tell. But McKenna is right – it’s not the occasion to panic either way — yet.
Note: This is the first part of a two-part discussion on this year’s elections. Part II will come on Monday.
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .