By Jeffrey A. Rendall
President Trump must find a way to focus on everything at once, including public opinion
The midterms, always the midterms. Have we talked about the midterms lately? Did we ever stop thinking of them?
You can’t blame conservatives and Republicans for being a little antsy about the upcoming election season. The recent ending of the longest government shutdown in history (that set back most of the Department of Homeland Security for 2 ½ months) demonstrated that the partisan balance in Congress is very much on the minds of many right-thinking folks as we enter the heart of the primary season.
Add the recent surge in voter interest regarding gerrymandering – racial and otherwise – and you’ve got a lot of folks on edge about how things could shape up later this year.
That’s right. We haven’t even reached the meat of the traditional campaign period and already the two sides appear to be in mid-season form in terms of fine-tuning rhetorical skills and fashioning a pitch for why their parties deserve control of Congress come 2027.
President Donald J. Trump is hardly immune from the conjecture. Trump’s every move is under the microscope, as usual, and political pros are taking the long view as to the president’s chances to preside over the final two years of his presidency with friendly majorities on Capitol Hill.
How will the story end? It’s something we’re all wondering as the tale’s being written.
In an article titled, “Trump looking ahead to history as midterm elections approach”, W. James Antle III wrote at the Washington Examiner recently:
“[I]n 2020, Trump was seeking reelection and thought he might have another four years ahead of him to transform the Middle East. In 2026, he is term-limited, and it’s now or never. Trump has looked to leave his mark in smaller ways, too. He has put his name on the Kennedy Center and bulldozed ahead with plans to build a new White House ballroom, the latter project seemingly gaining momentum after the attack on the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner.
“These initiatives drive his critics crazy and might not move the needle for down-ballot Republicans in November. But they arguably make more sense if he is looking past the midterm elections toward his legacy.
“Trump is the first president to serve nonconsecutive terms in the modern political era. The only precedent is Grover Cleveland in the 19th century. He has already made history and appears to realize has a limited amount of time to make more.”
Hmmm. Is this really true?
With due respect to the political analyzation skills of Mr. Antle, President Trump is governing as though he thinks he has years and years left to get things done. Or, at least it seems he’s pushing buttons without a whole lot of regard for what’s going to happen half a year from now.
Some might call it a Trumpian sense of urgency. Others view it as a Trumpian sense of complacency.
That’s right. Roughly six months to go until the November elections, and primaries are being conducted in various states to select party candidates to determine the makeup of the next Congress. The recent Supreme Court ruling concerning the constitutionality of racial gerrymandering and the actions of a few large states should play a big role in which faction has the advantage.
Trump himself doesn’t appear too troubled that it’s mid-May already. The Iran War excursion started a couple months ago. Gas prices were swimming along at an even (relatively low) keel prior to the bombs falling on Tehran, but the price per gallon shot up quickly and hasn’t come back to earth as of yet. The voters’ mood doesn’t change much in the interim, no matter what Trump does or says.
Congress isn’t really making their case, either. This is true on both political sides. Another couple months have slipped by and there’s no major Republican push to ditch the filibuster in the senate and the SAVE Act remains stalled. And where there formerly were rumors about the Republicans launching another reconciliation bill, the lawmakers have been preoccupied with dealing with ancillary matters.
If time is running out to make an impact, it’s nobody’s fault but the time keepers. Trump set a June 1st deadline for recon bill #2.
Frankly, Republicans aren’t acting like they’re all-that apprehensive about losing majorities in either – or both – of the congressional chambers. GOPers are content to rely on what happened last year when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed and so much good stuff was included in it. If congressional Republicans had laurels, they’d rest on them.
Meanwhile, it seems like Iran is indeed suffering under the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but the Islamic command doesn’t care – at all – about how much the people agonize. Rumors persist that various anti-regime actors ponder an overthrow of the government there. But even assuming it happened, what will change?
As the experience in Iraq showed us, what came after wasn’t a huge improvement over what went before in terms of welcoming wholesale westernized customs and practices.
Trump gambled mightily on the Iran War, and although every indicator suggests the endeavor has been a remarkable success, there hasn’t been much approval rating escalation among the American population. Gasoline and Diesel prices remain way above where they’ll need to be in the fall to result in Republican confidence that they’ll stick around next year.
Democrats don’t propose anything, but the voters act like they’re primed to swing the pendulum back to the left, again, the same type of shift they perform every few election cycles when the establishment media mood-shapers tell the low-information types that Trump isn’t doing a good job. It’s easy to be a contrarian and much more arduous to promote the sunny side of an issue.
Right now, Americans would have received their swelled tax return checks (because of the OBBA), but it hasn’t resulted in bigger support percentages for the good side.
I’ve argued, apparently to no avail, that Trump and Republicans must home-in on the narrow slice of persuadable voters and do nothing but pound economy, economy, economy in their message.
Why? Because that’s what people in flyover country think about. I know a good many would-be first-time home buyers who are distraught about interest rates and the plain fact that each interest point prices them out of another strata of homes to potentially choose from. It’s like a game no one relishes playing and more often than not doesn’t set up well for a satisfactory conclusion.
As one would expect, the Iran War will surely have a major impact on the campaign, if not for its uncertain conclusion, then for the amount of time it takes the Republicans’ #1 campaigner off the trail. As Antle noted in his piece, Trump promised to hold rallies in the last half of this year and approach meeting voters where they live as though he himself were on the ballot.
The latest failed assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner reinforced an earlier decision to no longer hold mass outdoor campaign rallies for Trump. They’re just too hard to make airtight. So, he’ll be restricted, somewhat, from his most effective means of talking with the people directly.
And rallies will definitely help with the Republicans’ get-out-the-vote efforts, but they won’t do much to sway the middle part of the electorate that will be the deciders in the shrinking number of contestable congressional district races.
Democrats are anticipating a wave election in November, automatically assuming that today’s lukewarm Trump poll numbers will persist through the fall. Liberals think every state and congressional district will behave like Virginia and New Jersey – and New York City – did a half year ago, but what they forget to note is that all of these places will have had a full year’s worth of Democrat governance to bolster the, “See, this is what you get when you elect Democrats” line of persuasion.
Republicans understand that momentum is against them, and history most definitely is not on their side. Trump’s legacy building moves are ultimately good for the country, but will the voters’ attitudes improve in time to save the Republican majorities in Congress?
We could see a shift in President Trump’s focus very soon. It couldn’t come fast enough for many of us.
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .