By Jeffrey A. Rendall
Trump’s final midterm test is rapidly approaching. Will he make himself less of an issue?
I remember a sign that was taped to a clock in one of my junior high classrooms that read simply, “Time is passing. Are you?”
Seeing as I was a pretty good student and was never in danger of not passing anything, I didn’t devote much mental energy to the message’s meaning. But Republicans, including President Donald J. Trump, should give credence to whether they’re “passing” the test to retain their majorities in Congress come November… because time is most definitely passing.
Granted, it is the dog days of August and not a whole lot typically gets done when the (real) DC swamp is at its most putrid, concerned political observers are noticing the inertia.
In a newsletter entry titled, “Ninety-five days and counting”, Byron York reported at the Washington Examiner last weekend:
“…The only Republican upside, and it is a significant one, is that many Democrats seem to have gone completely insane. The rise of the Democratic Socialists of America inside the party — an unwelcome event that has deeply distressed many mainstream Democrats — is an opportunity for GOP candidates to portray the entire Democratic Party as nuts. Worse than nuts — dangerous.
“So that is good for the GOP, if bad for the country. But is it enough to actually win the midterm elections? ‘I give us a 20 percent chance [of holding the House],’ said one veteran Republican strategist via email. ‘Which is generous. … The people who are bullish cannot answer the question: Why will this midterm be different?’ the strategist went on to say. ‘They say, ‘We have a lot of money, redistricting helped us, and the Dems are crazy.’ All three of those are true. But that does not feel like enough to beat: very bad president numbers, gas prices, history.’
“’I’d like to be wrong,’ the strategist concluded. Republicans would undoubtedly agree. But the situation is what it is.”
Opinions differ on whether Republicans will buck the historical odds or not. York’s article details the factors GOPers are working against. But one thing is certain regardless… the time between now and Election Day is disappearing like the sand in the Wicked Witch’s hourglass (in the Wizard of Oz).
When York published his piece, it was 95 days and counting. Well, it’s more like ninety days and counting now. The days are ticking by faster than ever and there seems to be a decided lack of urgency among the poohbahs in the highest echelons of the Republican party.
It’s not as though we expect them to obsess on the dwindling weeks remaining until November’s election – and run screaming through the streets of Washington DC to demonstrate that they really do care – but it looks as though Republicans are sitting back and waiting for someone else to make a move that would initiate a chain reaction that would do the trick.
It appears to this observer that Republicans are content to bide their time watching Democrats implode in their ideological tug-of-war with the Democratic Socialists of America for the hearts and minds of the various Democrat constituencies. We don’t have to wait long for someone within the party to say or do something stupid and attention-grabbing, but conservatives must always keep in mind that the American public’s attention span is momentary, at best, and only “big” things will matter at this juncture.
The overall picture looks very promising. The American economy is humming along and the outlook is bright for a sustained period of growth that will float all boats and folks can feel good about the coming years and their investment portfolios.
But this “the sun will come out tomorrow” line of reasoning isn’t a message that will resonate with the persuadable slice of Americans, the ones who don’t pay attention to the day-to-day back-and-forth of politics and also don’t care about the bickering and backbiting at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
The 250th anniversary (of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence) celebrations came and went and most patriots felt good about the way the Trump people planned the commemorations. It was a grand occasion, indeed, and, for a time, Americans put aside their petty gripes about this and that and just concentrated on displaying Old Glory in their front yards and appreciated the epic fireworks shows.
But now that the hoopla has died down, we’re stuck with the same political issues as before, but with fewer days between now and Election Day to correct them. President Trump is who he is and will be the same person with the consistent messaging limitations he’s always been prone to.
Take the enormous amount of good with the limited quantity of bad, but someone should remind the president that a displaying a little humility wouldn’t necessarily be harmful from now until November.
This is only one example, but the president’s eagerness to call out and then get into a social media pissing match with a member of his own team (U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro) doesn’t look good to the average person who just hopes to be left alone and counts on American leaders to move policy rather than get defensive over trivial matters.
Trump’s approval rating isn’t based on the relative health of the stock market or the unemployment rate as these are invisible things that reflect on his ability to lead and serve as the figurehead of American government. Inflation is something everyone sees whenever they head to the gas station or stroll the aisles of their local supermarket.
Being told that “Everything is great” isn’t resonating with enough people to provide a comfortable political margin. This is about winning elections, it’s not about being right about everything, or steadfastly refusing to give an inch in the public relations crusade, only to be asked to fight to regain the territory later.
Trump and his administration are winning the policy war – handily. The Iran War continues, and each passing day it lingers will impact Trump’s job approval ratings. Most people – at least the ones who matter – understand that Iran’s capacity to resist is greatly diminished, but the Mullahs are still in charge, nonetheless.
As I’ve argued in the past, gasoline prices are everything in today’s political reality. If gas is higher, it impacts family budgets directly. The fact is so simple that it literally shouts its presence. Grocery prices won’t come down (if ever) until fuel prices recede. What can be done about it?
Any number of international factors will influence the price of crude oil. These may or may not be within the control of President Trump and his administration colleagues. But here’s arguing that Trump’s approval rating is somewhat tied to his likability. It’s easier to feel good about a politician when he or she makes it simpler for people to like him.
Again, I’m not advocating for wholesale changes to the way Trump handles his administration’s communications. Common sense and long-term observation of the 45th and 47th president suggests he’s not only bent on levelling the playing field, he’s determined to tilt the game in his favor.
Trump enjoys being right on the issues and isn’t shy about letting people know it. He’ll say things to your face that no one else would do, a type of candor that was wholly lacking in American politics before he emerged from his business empire to take a stab at running for the presidency and then running the country.
Trump’s instincts have been correct in nearly all ways, but he hasn’t been successful in lifting his approval rating high above the fifty percent mark. Now, the figure is closer to forty percent.
This doesn’t mean Republicans are headed for an epic defeat in three months. They have money on their side, have taken advantage of a chance to redraw congressional district boundaries and Democrats are no closer to formulating a winning message than they have been in years. They’re banking on using Trump’s personal unpopularity and “affordability” worries as the means to promote and bolster their case for being put back into the majority on Capitol Hill.
In making these recommendations, I reiterate that all that’s needed are small adjustments to help steer public opinion in a positive direction. Trump should keep blasting the Democrats to draw issue-based distinctions and, where feasible, to ensure the GOP exploits its issue-based advantages.
In 2026, politics is the only game that matters. Will Republicans learn how to pass the test?
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .