By Jeffrey A. Rendall
Right now, there’s quite a bit of speculation on which pols will not run for president in ‘28
With polls and pundits continuing the back-and-forth on which party will do better in this year’s now sooner-than-later midterm elections, distant rumbles involving 2028 are also detectable, particularly on the Democrat side.
Experts are unsure as to how much weight to put on the Democrats’ chances to kick Republicans out of power on Capitol Hill next month, and one way or another, Democrats are looking at needing to contend with President Donald Trump for a couple more years.
Needless to say, there’s a great deal of anticipation among Democrats regarding the future. Soon, liberals and leftists must get beyond their “anyone but Trump” longings and actually choose someone to represent them in the 2028 campaign.
Who will it be? In an article titled, “Will Rubio, Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez run for president?”, Amie Parnes reported at The Hill last week:
“Much of the time, the politicians inevitably jump into the race. And sometimes — as was the case with Barack Obama when he famously declared in 2006 that he ‘will not’ run for president — they win. But as the field of would-be 2028 candidates comes into view, some of the politicians whose names have been bandied about are privately telling allies, aides, donors and others in their circles that they’re lukewarm on actually running.
“And they could actually mean it. Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has risen on the wish lists of a number of Democrats in recent months as he runs for reelection in Georgia, has said publicly that he has no interest in a White House bid…
“On the Republican side, there has been chatter for months about whether Secretary of State Marco Rubio will enter the GOP primary in 2028. Rubio has told donors and other allies that he will not run, particularly against Vice President Vance, sources say…”
I’ve touched on the Rubio situation a number of times, including last week. I don’t think the Floridian is likely to change his deliberations anytime soon, though sources in Parnes’ article speculated that he might desire to start distancing himself from Trump for future considerations. It’s a little early to make that kind of assumption, especially since Trump is a master of the political comeback, and conditions in the overall economy are bound to improve when the Iran War mess sorts itself out.
As far as Ossoff goes, it appears Democrats are searching, seeking and probing for possible 2028 candidates not named “Kamala”, “Gavin” and or [insert Democrat would-be candidate here.] The fact Ossoff is young and hails from a southern red/purple state makes him a natural luminary to dredge up and remove from the proverbial dartboard of Democrats who could be a potential new leader.
But I don’t see it. I would think Kentucky Democrat Andy Beshear would have a more rightful claim to the young-ish southern-ish white dude lane in the Democrat party, aside from former Biden Trans. Secretary of Pete Buttigieg, who has a firm hold on the “gay” lane in the faction.
All of them are seasoned reality/truth-benders who could command a slice of the Democrat primary pie, but the whole thing? Any of these men would have to compete with Kamala Harris for the Democrat black women vote, and the former vice president has a firm hold on that class by virtue of her immutable membership in the racial and demographic pool.
If Ossoff says he has no interest in running for president, one tends to take him at his word on this one. Ossoff must grasp that he has no chance to compete for the favor of black women if Harris has her pumps on the pavement and performs the requisite amount of pandering and identity politics maneuvering. That’s not just conjecture, it’s common sense.
Not even ambitious Latina Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could vie for this very active Democrat category.
Speaking of AOC, Parnes further reported, “In a New York Times interview last month, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who is considering a run for the Senate and also a campaign for president, was open about her calculus on running and how she may only get one shot at a presidential run, particularly at a moment when progressives and democratic socialists are gaining steam in her party.
“’There’s an argument that some make that this is a very unique political window and, oftentimes in politics, you do only get one shot,’ she said in the interview.”
Does the intellectually-challenged socialist true-believer really think this? The social media queen of the party believes in her heart she’s got the bona fides and wherewithal to go pretty much wherever her whims take her within Democrat confines, and she’s certainly got the loyalty of the budding Democratic Socialist freak fringe in her corner. The kooks may be taking over the asylum, too, depending on how well they do in this year’s federal midterm elections.
At the same time, the “this is it, my only shot” mentality is real, but for the younger prospective candidates in the upcoming 2028 cycle, it simply can’t be accurate.
Commentators look back on the lead-up to the 2008 election and suggest Barack Obama took advantage of his chance to run for president – and won, twice – but there probably wasn’t anything special about 2008 that would’ve meant he could only run and win that one time. Obama’s age and natural political talents would’ve made him formidable in any succeeding election cycle, arguably, even today’s.
The fact The Big “O” seized his moment, took on Crooked Hillary in the Democrat primaries and then all-but received a “pass” in the 2008 general election doesn’t indicate the stars aligned in that singular moment. From memory, I recall the 2008 Republican presidential field was rather weak and John McCain cashed in his “next in line” chips to win the post-George W. Bush GOP establishment’s preferred choice to run in the national contest.
Not even McCain’s decision to add Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to his ticket could get conservatives excited enough about working and voting for the wishy-washy RINO pro-amnesty Arizona senator. McCain was doomed from the outset, weighed down by Bush’s pathetic approval ratings and a record that didn’t speak favorably for Republicans taking on and then defeating the would-be first black president.
Recall how it was McCain himself who poo-pooed the notion of dragging traitor Black Liberation Theology Pastor Jeremiah Wright into the campaign, something that could’ve branded Obama as a leftist radical and dampened his turnout, especially among traditional Democrat working class voters.
The rest is history. Obama wasn’t a sure winner in 2008 as much as McCain was a sure loser. Political science professors may not see it this way, but conservatives understand that 2008 was definitely winnable if the message and brand-your-opponent urgency was handled appropriately. Obama’s feather-light political resume wasn’t properly exploited.
Obama won on skin color alone. So much for “Hope and Change”.
The 2028 Republican nominee won’t be saddled with the same limitations McCain was, or at least it doesn’t look as though he will. Here’s thinking Donald Trump has at least one cycle to act as semi-kingmaker, and there’s no way Trump would allow his legacy to be taken over by a resurgent Republican establishment. Therefore, the GOP nominee, whomever it ends up being, will likely be a fairly strong force.
The fact AOC thinks this may be her only chance to run and shot at being president, is clearly off-base. Ocasio-Cortez will be limited by her own considerable faults as a candidate, not by making or missing her moment in history.
There will come a time in the coming months when potential presidential hopefuls will stop making excuses for why they don’t intend to run and begin making the case for why they will be one of the first to declare for their respective party fields.
Here’s thinking Ossoff probably won’t run and neither will Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer (mentioned in Parnes’ article). AOC, if she truly believes 2028 is her only chance to run for president, will surely be one of the earliest to declare. The rest will fall into place and Kamala Harris will be the frontrunner until some other Democrat displaces her.
Marco Rubio will hold true to his vow to stay out if JD Vance runs. And Republican voters will spend the next year-and-a-half deciding if they want to extend the Trump dominance of the GOP – or if they’re ready for a new personality type instead.
The answers will come soon enough. Political posturing never stops in America. As long as there are two completely different worldviews represented, the mystery will perpetuate.
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .