By Jeffrey A. Rendall
Opinions vary on the notion of a Dem wave, but GOPers must get their message straight
Are we headed for the beach?
Does anyone see the sand and the waves on the horizon, or is there just a flat calm?
How good – or bad will the 2026 elections go for Republicans? What do you see in the not-so-far distance? In an opinion piece simply titled, “Is a blue wave building?”, W. James Antle III wrote at the Washington Examiner recently:
“House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) often points to the 21 seats in his chamber rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report when talking up Republican chances, but [recently], the proprietor of that newsletter sounded a distinctly skeptical note. ‘It appears to me that the president has now reached a critical mass of problems that are threatening to take this election to a place that the 2026 map and the small number of competitive districts and Senate seats should not allow it to go,’ Charlie Cook wrote with a little more than 60 days to go before the elections. ‘I confess this is a lot bigger than I expected, but here we are.’
“…Democrats lead by 5.7 points in the same average of polls on the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters prefer to control Congress. While the latest Harvard-Harris poll has Republicans up 2 points, every other poll included has Democrats leading by anywhere from 5 to 11 points…
“…Maybe the national climate is bad enough for Republicans that districts that would not normally be competitive suddenly are. Republicans are focused on mid-decade redistricting, cash spending, and turning out Trump voters in order to defy history as the party in power during the midterm elections.”
What’s the old saying? ‘Where there’s life there’s hope’?
Republicans most certainly have strong arguments to present to voters this fall. Last week’s employment report alone was a dose of badly needed positive news for the good guys. Then there was the Republican Midterm Convention, where President Trump and his supporting cast revved up the base. Yet they haven’t been doing a very good job of making their case to independent and undecided voters, in my estimation at least.
And this month’s growth numbers aren’t spectacular, either.
It’s almost like they don’t speak the same language as the average person does. President Trump still acts as though his two (three?) time tested campaign formula is foolproof, and that his say-so alone will deliver for Republicans regardless of what’s happening “out there” among the people. Self-belief is important and Trump’s got a full basket of it.
But in our post 9/11 pessimistic political reality, Republicans are running out of time to grab hold of some message discipline at the nearest common-sense box store and distribute it to Republican candidates everywhere. Especially those on Pennsylvania Avenue. Since I’ve basically argued this until I’m blue (pardon the pun) in the face, let me try and state it even plainer for the tragically tone deaf Republican leadership – including President Trump – to understand.
Yes, as we’ve been reminded many times recently, the straightforward economic numbers are better than they were under senile Joe Biden, and one would reason, to the extent that reason or logic matters in politics anymore (or it ever did), that Republicans’ electoral bottom line should look better.
Need a visual? Put your imagination to work and envision a sample conversation to portray the mood I’m detecting:
Two friends arranged to meet for lunch at Chick-fil-A and the talk eventually turned to politics. Both are reasonably informed and open to others’ opinions:
Citizen A: “Oh, I just read a report that unemployment remains low, inflation is holding steady – and much better than it was under the previous awful president. Trump and his spokespeople say prices will stabilize when Iran is finally vanquished, and we can hold on until that time knowing the future is brighter with Republicans in charge.”
Citizen B: “Yeah, but I don’t see any of that economic number crap when I buy stuff. All I know is it just set me back $60 bucks to fill up my tank, and my paycheck ain’t covering the increase. I got daycare, a leaky toilet that I can’t fix myself and I just had to buy a car battery that set me back $600 because Autozone said they couldn’t get the battery out of my minivan with the bracket on it, so I had to go to the dealer to do it. I’m hurtin’ and at this point, I don’t much care who wins this year. They’re all corrupt.”
Citizen A: “I hear ya. But the economists say that wages are going up much faster than under Biden. The Big Beautiful Bill also cut your taxes, so you saved more money on taxes this year.”
Citizen B: “Sure, and I did get a little raise this year. But the few extra bucks in my paycheck just go to cover the big increase in gasoline and diesel prices. Those greedy oil companies! Whenever I gas up my car, I hear my wage raise going straight into the tank with that gurgling sound. Heck, I went into the store the other day and it was $4 for a 2-liter bottle of Pepsi. 4 bucks for that?
Citizen A: “You definitely have to be more careful these days, for sure. I’m thinking about asking the boss if he’ll let me work Saturday nights to earn enough to send my 3-year-old to preschool. But I still think the Republicans have done a good job and President Trump is Making America Great Again. The Democrats suck. Who do they have? Kamala Harris?”
Citizen B: “I can’t stand the Democrats either. I see the political commercials where the Democrat just talks about women this and that and how Trump has killed us on affordability. I’m not gonna vote for them, but the Republicans aren’t doing enough to keep their promises. And it’s just getting worse. I don’t care about Iran either way. Just don’t send our guys over there. We’re paying for it.”
Citizen A: “But Democrats cheat. And how many illegal aliens voted in the last election? Trump is making sure that illegals don’t even get into the country. And Trump talks all the time about how much investment has been pumped into the economy.”
Citizen B: (Interrupting) “The only investment I’m seeing being pumped anywhere was the money from my bank account going into the gas tank. And Republicans didn’t even pass that Save America thing that would force people to show ID’s when voting. Republicans are useless and I’m not going to bother to vote. Why should I? What have they done for me? The country’s going down the tubes. I’m just tryin’ to get by until next week. It’ll never get better no matter who’s in charge.”
Citizen A: “I’m not arguing with you, just pointing out that policies matter and the Democrats are a bunch of socialists who just want to give away stuff to their voters to bribe them. Look at that guy they chose in Michigan for the senate. And how about the New York City mayor? I heard he’s opening government run grocery stores and will make subway rides ‘free’. And he won’t punish criminals. He’s awful.”
Citizen B: “I couldn’t care less what happens in New York City. And I ain’t movin’ to Michigan, either. I just want to live my life and raise my kids and have enough cash for a weekend away now and then. And doctor visits. Don’t get me started on that vaccine stuff.”
–Have you ever noticed that the “regular” people you talk with in the line at the supermarket or Costco all seem to complain about the same things? That’s how Americans view the economy. They see what they see and the RNC chairman can talk about fundraising and redistricting and how awful the Democrats are and all of it may be true, but human motivations aren’t governed by such things.
Crowd mentality factors into politics. And judging by the polling numbers (as pointed out by W. James Antle III in his piece), Americans aren’t buying the “I’m the greatest president ever” argument the current White House occupant is repeating over and over.
Americans are naturally pessimistic about their leaders. It takes a lot more energy to like something than it does to bash on it, and suddenly realizing that the money you were putting aside for this or that was taken away by some other everyday expense isn’t helping folks on the margin feel cheerier.
It’s easier and simpler to grab for the nearest politician and pin a blame label on his or her lapel or pantsuit.
Politicians are the whipping boys/gals for the middle school class mentality of most voters who aren’t all that impressed by the amount of foreign investment that is streaming into the cash pool, or that company x decided to dump a billion into the economy. They just want results. President Trump has tried to provide them, but he hasn’t packaged it right.
Congressional Republicans – more specifically, Majority Leader John Thune and a small contingent of RINOs – haven’t done a lot that average people do see. Obstruction and lethargy isn’t a winning formula.
That’s it in nutshell. The results aren’t baked in. But the difference lies in convincing a few people in each close district or state that you’ve got what it takes to change course. And that they’re being heard. That’s really important.
Jeff Rendall is editor and publisher of GolfintheUSA.com and has written about golf and politics for over a quarter of a century. A non-practicing attorney from California, he moved to the east coast three decades ago to pursue and combine his interests in all things American history and culture. Jeff has worked as an intern on Capitol Hill and in various capacities in grassroots organizing and conservative organizations and publications, including a nearly two-decade stint at ConservativeHQ.com. Column republishing or other inquiries: Rendall@msn.com .